Jim's Soap Box (October 08)

Jim’s Soap Box

Arizona Real Estate Newsletter – October 08

THE GOOD NEWS – New home sales rose 2.7% Nationwide in September – according to the Associated Press. This came as a surprise to many who thought it was going to drop again after an awful August where new home sales dropped 12%. This bounce-back of volume did not really shock me but the reason I mention this to you is that the West was the driving force in September sales. Here is the breakdown of that National average by region.

West +22.7%
South +0.7%
Midwest - 5.7%
East -21.4%

I find this exciting because the fastest cure for the Southwest to get out of this declining market funk is to reduce available inventory. And unsold new homes make up a large percentage of that inventory here in Arizona.

The goal of my newsletter is to provide educational material mixed with Jim’s unsolicited yet fascinating opinion on the Arizona housing market and real estate ownership in general. If you would like me to address a specific topic in the future, please email it to me and I will respond in the following newsletter.

The Prime Rate

The Feds have recently lowered the Prime rate by .5%, and there is widespread speculation that they will lower it again on the 29th of October. This upcoming reduction should be another .5% bringing the prime rate to a net 4%. This will tie the lowest prime has ever been (with 2003). I will admit that this will not solve all the credit problems, but it does reduce the interest payments for those people with current Home Equity balances they cannot refinance.

Other economic experts say that a .5% cut will not have any real effect on the market. But, if a larger cut happens (say .75% to 1.00%) lowing the prime rate into the 3s, it will have a more significant impact on the credit crunch. I guess they are giving a lot of weight to the “New Historic Low” headlines newspapers would give it.
What does that mean to 30 year rates??

The overall goal of this maneuver is to reduce interest rates on the prime side and on the 30 year fixed side (bond market). The last time they predicted a large cut in prime (Feb 08), the 30 year rates came down briefly in anticipation of the prime cut before the event itself. Once they cut Prime, the 30 year rates went up almost a half a point in one day. Will that happen again this time… who knows? My advice to people who are holding out on a transaction to see rates drop (on 10/30) is “don’t get burned.” If you have the rate to make something happen today you should lock in and pull the trigger.

The Election & Who is to Blame

With all of the current campaigning for the presidency, there has been some outstanding finger-pointing by both parties accusing the other for the housing debacle. I have seen everything from White Paper articles, Blogs, video magazines, news reports, and political internet ads accusing all kinds of individuals for our current Economic problems. I have seen “hard evidence” that the following people are solely to blame for this credit crunch issue; Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Indy Mac, Oprah, Oil Companies, every Democrat that ran for public office since 1977, the French, the Director of Freddie Mac, Freddie Mercury (Freddie Mac’s nephew), and even yours truly – Jim the subprime Loan Shark. This may seem a bit sarcastic, because it is. 

In my opinion, as someone who has been in the trenches of the housing market for the last 7 years, there are probably well over 100,000 people who should shoulder the blame for this problem. The common denominator for these 100,000 people was simply greed. There were not enough level heads when the housing market was going really good to restrain the lenders & Wall Street.

I am not absolving Realtors, Appraisers, Loan Officers, Underwriters, Lenders, Borrowers, and the like for their part. However, what about the CFO of the A.I.G. Insurance company? What was his motivation to not diversify his portfolio into other vehicles except for Moderate Risk Mortgage Backed Securities? Was it Greed? I would bet on it.

If you wish to wrap your brain around the US financial numbers of the last 10 years I have an unbiased report with lots of good charts and graphs. It is a report from Casey Research called “The Crisis in Pictures”. You do not have to be an MIT graduate to read it (but an MIT graduate did give it to me – thanks Laura). Please respond to this email, requesting a copy of the report, and I will send it as a PDF. I highly suggest reading it if you have the 10 minutes to spare.

*** If you know someone who would benefit from my educational newsletters, please forward their name and email address to me and I will add them to our educational circle.

All Best!!

Jim

JIM CUNNINGHAM
Nova Home Loans
8800 E Raintree Drive #180
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480 614-6413
602 434-8261 cell
jim@novahomeloans.com
http://activerain.com/jcunningham