JIM'S SOAP BOX
Real Estate Newsletter Aug 09

TIME IS RUNNING OUT….

November 30th is the last day to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit available to first-time homebuyers. Qualified first-time home buyers may claim a tax credit of ten percent of the purchase price of their home, up to $8,000. In order to meet that deadline, first-time homeowners need to select a home and begin the loan process as soon as possible!

Surveys show that fewer than 1 in 5 homebuyers currently shopping for a home know about the tax credit, which is why I am actively trying to spread the word. Please let me know if I can assist you any way!

The goal of this newsletter is to provide educational material mixed with Jim’s unsolicited yet fascinating opinion on the Arizona housing market and real estate ownership in general. If you would like me to address a specific topic in the future, please email it to me and I will respond in the following newsletter.

It's Getting Easier to Go Green

I am proud to announce that I am a local provider of a new mortgage product called myEnergyLoan. I am one (of only two) providers in Arizona who are registered to provide and finance myEnergyLoan. The other registered Loan Officer is my green partner Jim Tulin, also with Nova Home Loans.

myEnergyLoan provides these core benefits to green real estate buyers and investors:
Provides the funds to make your energy efficient upgrades

Provides an efficiency credit to reduce closing costs
May be applied to lower your long term interest rate
Helps reduce your monthly utility bills
A certificate validating your myEnergyLoan Efficiency Credit

I urge that you call me if you are considering a purchase of an Energy Efficient home - or - if you are considering adding solar features to you current home. Ther are several Streamline Refinance programs that will allow you to add solar energy to your home without an appraisal. Something to think about.

Appreciation in Your Home's Value on the Way!

If you read the last edition of Jim’s Soap Box you saw that the sales in Maricopa County for May were very good, 9,284 homes to be exact. Well I am happy to announce that this was not a fluke, and the sales for June came in at 9,350 homes. These are both near record months and definitely suggest that the market is ending the cycle of depreciating property values. The numbers have not been verified for July or August yet – but on the 22nd of July there were over 16,000 pending sales – which is a staggering number.

So, what does that mean?
Your property value has been greatly affected by the sales of foreclosed properties. Appraisers can only compare your home’s value to similar homes that have sold in the last 60 to 90 days. Being that bank owned, foreclosed, and short sale properties make up 77% of the homes that have sold over the last quarter – the chances are high that you can only compare your home’s value to foreclosed properties being sold at great discounts. So, if you think your home should be around $200K in value – you might be shocked to know that the highest home sale in the last 60 days was a short-sale for $130K a few blocks away.

The biggest event (in my opinion) that will help your property value return to realistic levels, is to have privately owned (not foreclosed) properties begin to sell again. Considering that foreclosed properties are usually sold well under market value, why would someone (any buyer) choose a privately owned home for thousands of dollars more? Well, they actually wouldn’t chose that option unless,… there were no more foreclosures left to sell.

So, when 9,350 houses sold in June, that left only 26,000 homes left on the market at month’s end. Logic would dictate that we would be basically "Sold Out" of homes within 3 months if no new listings appeared. Realistically, people list houses every day and the supply will never really run out - but the demand for houses will definitely go up due to a lack of inventory – and that is when the average price of houses (foreclosed and private) will go back up.

Sounds great! When do I call to refinance?
Not quite yet, because the rest of the story goes like this. There are currently 47,000 houses in Foreclosure in Maricopa County that are not listed for sale yet. It is my guess that the banks would like to see the market tighten up a little to fetch a higher price for these houses. I have already seen higher competition over newly listed foreclosures in Metro-Phoenix. If you want to buy an under-priced foreclosure – be prepared to outbid a handful of other buyers.

So what are you trying to say?
The number of houses selling per month is very strong (nearly 10,000) and appears to not be slowing down. There are roughly 30,000 active listing with another 47,000 foreclosures available to be listed. Also, there are tens of thousands of people who want to list their house as soon as we "turn the corner" on property values. This translates into 10 months of housing supply rather than 3! However, I believe (in Phoenix) we have already hit the bottom of the curve and you will begin to see a tight market with signs of appreciation by the holidays. In the spring of 2010 there should be more optimistic press available than what I am prognosticating today. My friends, we have all made it through the storm.

Good News on American Home Sales

(CNNMoney.com) -- More Americans signed sales contracts to buy homes in June than in May, the fifth consecutive month of increases, according to a report released Tuesday.
The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index rose 3.6% during the month. That was 6.7% higher than June 2008. It was the fifth straight month of increases, the first time that has happened since July 2003..

The report followed several other recent pieces of good news for the housing industry, including a substantial rise in new home sales, a jump in existing home sales and the first home price increase in nearly three years.

The jump was also much higher than expected. A consensus of industry experts put together by Briefing.com had forecast an increase of just 0.7%

Low-end sales have been the strongest segment of the market, an indication that the first-time homebuyers tax credit, worth up to $8,000, is contributing to the rise. The clock, however, is quickly running out on this offer and may have buyers stepping up their shopping to get their purchases in under the wire.

Jim Cunningham
Loan Officer
Nova Home Loans8800 E. Raintree Drive, Suite #180Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480 614-6413 off
602 434-8261 cell
602 680-4664 eFax
jim@novahomeloans.com
www.NovaHomeLoans.com/Jim.Cunningham

Jim's Soap Box (July & August '08)

Jim’s Soap Box

Arizona Real Estate Newsletter – July & August 08

First off, I would like to proudly announce that July was a great step in the right direction for both me and the mortgage industry here in Arizona. The amount of Purchase Contracts that crossed my desk doubled in July, and I even had a couple of refinances as well. So, for those of you who were “concerned” about the missing July edition of Jim’s Soapbox (you can stop bugging your Internet Service Provider for the lost email) because here it is!

The goal of my newsletter is to provide educational material mixed with Jim’s unsolicited yet fascinating opinion on the Arizona housing market and real estate ownership in general. If you would like me to address a specific topic in the future, please email it to me and I will respond in the following newsletter.

Tunnel Lights Approaching
There is light at the end of the housing tunnel for about 40% of the United States. And more importantly, 60% of us are unknowingly already out of the tunnel. The following is from a White Paper/RISMedia report edited by John Benson. For those of you who regularly read the Soapbox know that I have never been a fan of Big Media, thus the following article really spoke out to me.

When it comes to the national housing market, there is a lot of gloom and doom in the daily newspaper. Just look at a few recent headlines:

• “Home Builder Sentiment, So. California Home Prices Crumble” - USA Today, 7/16/08
• “Home Builders Post Steep Losses as Value of Unsold Land Slips” - New York Times, 7/27/2008
• “Home Prices In May Took A Steep Fall” - The Wall Street Journal, 7/30/2008

“Thank God the economy is not as bad as you read in the newspaper every day.” - Phil Gramm, top economic advisor to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) Lost amid the uproar caused by Gramm’s proclamation that the U.S. is a “nation of whiners” was a breath of economic fresh air to Realtors nationwide.

The economic recession that the United States is facing has been portrayed in the media as being brought about by the rising cost of oil and the “burst bubble” in the housing market. There is no denying that the cost of oil continues to stand at near record levels. But while the bubble has burst on the housing market, is it really still a nationwide problem?

A recent report contributed to RISMedia, “Why 60% of the U.S. Can Stop Worrying about the Housing Market,” simply states “no.”

While home values did fall as the bubble burst, the media continues to report constant drops across the nation in national home values. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight’s (OFHEO) House Price Index (HPI) tells a different story than the media is reporting. Citing data from home sales and appraisals for refinancing, OFHEO reported in May that 35 states saw a positive home value price change in the first quarter of 2008. In addition, 164 MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) showed positive first quarter appreciation when compared to the same quarter of 2007…

…According to PMI Mortgage Insurance Company’s “Economic & Real Estate Trends” report for summer 2008, almost 68% of the nation’s 322 remaining MSAs experienced positive appreciation during the quarter when MSAs located in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are removed from PMI’s calculations.

Question – If the numbers from the end of this report excluded Arizona should it be considered good news? Heck yes!! The bubble bust over two years ago and now 63% of the nation experienced appreciation in their property from Q1 2007. That is an excellent sign that the worst is over and the remaining hard-hit areas (like AZ) are soon to follow. It is true that AZ still has a large supply of homes available, but we also have 10,000+ people (net) moving to Maricopa County every month. The end of the down cycle will be soon – even if they do not say it on TV!


Decreasing Home Values = Good News??
If your home value dropped since you last financed or purchased it, you might be able to turn it towards your advantage. Your Homeowners Insurance premiums are based primarily on the replacement value of your home. So if the replacement value of your home has dropped over the last 2 to 3 years, you should call your insurance agent to see if your Homeowners Insurance premiums should go down as well. It won’t make you rich,… but you might save a couple hundred bucks a year.

Here is the name of the Insurance Broker that I have worked with for years, and trust very highly. I suggest that you compare your current policy with what she has available using today’s property value.

April Irish
Hill Insurance Services
480.368.5222
airish@hill-ins.com

Bank Owned Property & Short Sale Property

The majority of purchases I have seen in the last 9 months are primarily buyers who are looking at either Bank Owned properties or homes that are being sold “short” to avoid foreclosure. There are simply not that many people looking to buy from private owners these days. Rather, everyone is looking for a smoking deal!

There is no arguing the point that these types of homes will be sold under their appraised value, giving you an immediate equity position. But, like many great deals – there can be a great deal of pain in your butt to actually get the home. My advice to anyone looking to get a bank owned/short sale home is to be ready to be extremely patient.

Bank Owned
A house that falls into foreclosure is eventually possessed by the bank in first lien position on the home’s Title. This is what we call a Bank Owned house. When you negotiate to purchase a Bank Owned home, you will be dealing with an unemotional seller who would like to recoup as much of their loss as possible, and they would like to sell the house quickly. Truth be told, banks prefer to lend money over owning & selling property.

When dealing with a Bank Owned homes (sometimes called a R.E.O.), be prepared to compete against several other buyers simultaneously. Usually the bank will price the home under its appraised value and take offers for up to 3 or 4 weeks before accepting a contract. They will then take the strongest offer. The “strength” of the offer will be a combination of how much the buyers offer, and how much of it they are financing. An all cash buyer will appear stronger than another borrower financing 97%.

Be prepared to outbid people who will offer more than the list price. If you need seller concessions to cover your closing costs, you should bid high enough above the asking price so that the bank will closely net that figure. Also, be prepared for the banks to reject your offer if you are asking too much in concessions to purchase the property.

Many REO properties will be listed and sold “as is”, meaning that they are not interested in fixing anything broken before you take possession. In the case of a government loan (especially FHA) items like the water heater, sink, and the arcadia door will all need to be fixed before your loan will go through. Be prepared to pay for the potential repairs yourself, or experience an escrow hold back during your purchase. The key is to remain patient and prepare yourself to lose negotiations on 2 or 3 houses before you actually get a contract on one you like.

Short Sales
If you think that buying a REO sounds aggravating – check into a Short Sale transaction. A Short Sale happens when the homeowner sells the property to a buyer at a loss to the bank. The seller usually entertains this idea before they slip into Bankruptcy or Foreclosure. This maneuver can actually be in the bank’s best interest too, if it saves them money over the alternative of the foreclosure proceedings and selling another REO. It is definitely in the seller’s best interest because a Short Sale is not nearly as bad to your credit or well being as a Foreclosure is.

So if both parties (Bank & Seller) benefit from the Short Sale what is the problem??

In my opinion - banks are great at lending money –but they are basically inept at selling houses in a timely manner. I cannot speak on behalf of any specific bank, but I would surmise that they are way too bureaucratic to do anything effectively. A bank will not identify an “acceptable” short sale value for a home until that property has actually been listed and there is a contract on the table. They will then take up to 90 days (no kidding) to give an answer. Many times that answer is no, because the offer is too low and the bank cannot justify that much loss on the current loan. The crazy part is that you can’t even ask the bank what an acceptable amount is until you have a contract in hand. You are basically throwing “manure” against the wall and seeing what sticks.

In some cases, the bank will actually respond to the original contract with a counter offer identifying the minimum value they will accept, but that is not often. In the event that you are trying to purchase a short sale property that has 2 liens against it (a 1st & 2nd Mortgage) held by separate lenders – you can double the aggravation and the headaches.

Also, the lien-holding bank reserves the right to cancel the deal any time during escrow for any reason they see fit. So, until you sign your loan docs (and it funds and records) they can cancel your purchase. DO NOT FALL IN LOVE WITH A SHORT SALE PROPERTY – it will break your heart and usually will.

However, if you have the patience and temperament for 6 months of negotiations – a short sale property can be a bargain!


*** If you know someone who would benefit from my educational newsletters, please forward their name and email address to me and I will add them to our educational circle.

All Best!!

Jim

JIM CUNNINGHAM
Nova Home Loans
8800 E Raintree Drive #180
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480 614-6413
602 434-8261 cell
jim@novahomeloans.com
http://activerain.com/jcunningham

Should I buy a house or rent one?

This is an excellent question to ask yourself before taking action. Despite the economy being sluggish, and fuel prices skyrocketing, the old rules of thumb are still accurate. Here are a few questions to address before you change your address.

• Can I afford the monthly payments?

Keeping your housing payment to 35% of your monthly gross income is a conservative target. If your potential mortgage payment is significantly higher than 35% you should probably rent a little longer until you identify cheaper housing, or increase your income.

• Can I afford a down payment?

The availability of 100% (no money down) financing is all but over. As of Oct 1st, you will need a down payment to attain housing. There are still Teacher A+ programs ranging from 2% down to 5% down (not including closing costs). Of course, the more you put down, the less expensive your monthly payment will be. Nonetheless, if you have 3% to 5% of the purchase price, you can cosider yourself in a strong position to buy a home. If you are coming up short of that mark you should probably keep renting and try to save a little every month.

• What are the long term benefits?

As a home owner you will have the benefits of future equity. Here in Arizona the worst is over and the depreciation has leveled off. We should all see appreciation in property values within the next 2 years. You have the ability to redecorate and change the décor of the home. You also have nice income tax benefits by owning a home.
As a renter you will have the benefit of no maintenance responsibilty in the home. If something breaks, the landlord will come and fix or replace it. Also, you do not have to worry about having to sell the home if you move. Some owners have the ability to keep the home as a rental, but by and large, most people have to sell before the buy again - and it may not sell quickly.

• How long will I live there?

There is no disputing that the longer you wish to live somewhere that the more advantages it is to own your home. The growth in equity will definitely have large benefits over renting.

• Is my credit strong enough?

In general, mortgage lenders are going to want to see that your middle FICO score (on a trimerge report) is over 680. Ther are still programs that will work for scores under 680. But, you will have more finance options at better rates if you ave over the 680 line.

The key here is to find out what your credit score is before you want to make your move. In some cases you credit score can be fixed/improved by putting effort in to clean it over a 60–90 day period. I recommend either a free credit report from the internet – or contact a mortgage lender that will pull your credit and give you council.

Jim

JIM CUNNINGHAM
Nova Home Loans
8800 E Raintree Drive #180
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
480 614-6413
602 434-8261 cell
jim@novahomeloans.com
http://activerain.com/jcunningham